The New Science

In the news these days, the once-hot topic of Intelligent Design seems to have faded out, as other assaults on rational thinking take its place.
During its primacy however, I noticed that a lot of people were comparing/contrasting ID (as they code-word it) to other areas of belief. Some used Darwinism as a comparison. Others used Astrology; claiming that ID was no more a science than was Astrology. A lot of people seemed to "get it" that a basic requirement of scientific thought is that your concept or hypothesis must be testable. To simply make an assertion (i.e., It's Too Complex - I Can't Understand It - It Must Be Gods Work) doesn't pass the testability test. Sorry ID, you can't be a science!
Now follow this carefully, because it's the point of this whole post: Astrology DOES pass the testability test! The astrologer predicts, the skeptic can check the predictions against the actuals. Oh Yes You Can!
In general, the success rate of the astrologer is pretty poor. Not, however, as poor as the success rate of the economist. You could look it up. When economists predictions are checked against reality, it seems that often times a cageful of monkeys does a better job than a boardroom full of economists. No wonder Economics is known as The Dismal Science.
So why, then, is Economics a science and Astrology not? I am suggesting that it's mostly a public relations gap. And, a crafty choice of symbols on the part of the economists. Where the astrologers use planetary signs, the economists use dollar signs. Vastly more potent symbol in todays world of captialism-on-the-rampage. Additionally, where astrologers make predictions, economists make 'forecasts'. Somehow, wrong forecasts don't generate the same skepticism as wrong predictions.
In an attempt to bring order out of, well, if not chaos, then at least confusion, I am proposing an entire new approach. A fusion as it were of two 'sciences' which, while separately they provide little insight, combined they will perhaps provide us with improved 'forecasting' results. It took some thought, but since astronomics sounds suspiciously like a subset of astronautics, I have decided on Econostrology as the name of my new science. Since it's my invention, it's up to me to name it! I can also be the founder-in-chief of the International Society of Econostrologists (ISE). Using astrological methods, but calling the results forecasts, and inserting a lot of dollar signs, I think this new and hopefully less dismal science has a fair chance of catching on.
A science is, of course, not a science if it doesn't propose a testable hypothesis. Here, then, is the Fundamental Theorem of Econostrology: The People Will Shift From One Side Of The Ship To The Other. When The Cargo Of Debt Becomes Too Great, The Ship Will Sink. The Survivors Will Be More Cautious When Next They Sail. Their Offspring, However, Will Not. I think this hypothesis is readily validated in the historical record. In fact, it's almost a lemma of an earlier theorem: Those who don't remember the past are destined to repeat it. Those who do remember the past are likewise destined to repeat it.
As the founder or Econostrology, I'm planning to name Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman as the founding past president, honoring him for his work establishing that high unemployment is a good thing (though not, perhaps for the unemployed - ed). Since he is now unemployed, I hope to persuade Alan Greenspan as the current past president, honoring him for his work in bamboozling the United States Congress with his Delphic testimony regarding, e.g. 'irrational exuberance'.
I myself plan to be treasurer of ISE. Less work, more profit.

Everybody's Getting Fat Except...

Obesity seems to have become *ahem* a large item in the news;

How We Get Fat

yet again. It has become a wonderfully complex, hence controversial, topic. People debate both the cause and the cure. While many insist that weight gain is caused by excess caloric intake, many more interesting theories abound. Some say it's MacDonald's, some say television. Some say it's school cafeterias, some say it's advertising.
Just as the cause is debated, so too is the cure. A cartoon character was informed by her (cartoon) physicain that she should lose some poundage; he recommended "moderate diet and exercise." The cartoon lady responded with "don't you think that's a bit extreme?" For those who agree with Blanche, there is a plethora (really, don't you think that should be "are a plethora"?) of obesity cures, most of them reconizeable by claims that weight will "melt away effortlessly". Such is human frailty that we buy into such claims no matter how unlikely we believe the claim to be. So, from Fat Dissolving Soap to Vibrating Belts (which at least sound sort of fun, in a kinky way), we rush from this brand of snake oil to the next, filled with hope, again and again. Surely, one of these magical cures must work!
Now, out of years of personal experience, I announce to you Franks Own Fat-Loss Method!
My new method comes from my observation that:
When I drive a car - I weigh about 215 lbs.
When I walk - I weigh about 175 lbs.
In other words, my CAR is responsible for about 40 lbs of (mostly) fat, or a difference in body mass of over 22%!
Ever the diligent researcher, I looked here

National Transportation Statistics

and discovered that in the United States today there are someting over 260,000,000 cars. As an aside, yes, just as in those old predictions, there are now more cars than there are drivers for the cars.
Now let's look at the math:
260 million cars @ 40 lb/car. That's 10.4 billion lbs of excess avoirdupois, just in the USA!
Continuing, fat is 9 Cal./gram, there are 455 g/lb; so, 9 x 455 x 10,400,000,000 = ummm, lessee...
42,588,000,000,000 (~42.5 Trillion) Calories adhering to the American waistline!
The energy shortage is now over - all that remains is to "tap in" to this National Fat Reserve (NFR); enough reserve energy to see the nation through its next "driving season" (doesn't that phrase seem really tragically odd to you?)
Now, my own experience suggests this energy can best be recovered by people walking from place to place; but that might be a bit extreme.
Seeking the solution in technology; perhaps a National Liposuction Program, with the results transformed into bio-diesel, is a more palatable proposal.
Seeking the solution in the new national paradigm (I truly hate that word!) of victimhood, which is today always the most likely way of responding - I think we will just continue to blame anybody-but-me and keep patronizing the snake-oil-salesman-of-the-moment, seeking the zipless weight-loss, with six-pack abs thrown in for the more unrealistic of us (among whom I count myself, sometimes anyway).
And continue to add to the NFR.
Meantime, my feet hurt.