Thursday, March 16, 2006

The New Science

In the news these days, the once-hot topic of Intelligent Design seems to have faded out, as other assaults on rational thinking take its place.
During its primacy however, I noticed that a lot of people were comparing/contrasting ID (as they code-word it) to other areas of belief. Some used Darwinism as a comparison. Others used Astrology; claiming that ID was no more a science than was Astrology. A lot of people seemed to "get it" that a basic requirement of scientific thought is that your concept or hypothesis must be testable. To simply make an assertion (i.e., It's Too Complex - I Can't Understand It - It Must Be Gods Work) doesn't pass the testability test. Sorry ID, you can't be a science!
Now follow this carefully, because it's the point of this whole post: Astrology DOES pass the testability test! The astrologer predicts, the skeptic can check the predictions against the actuals. Oh Yes You Can!
In general, the success rate of the astrologer is pretty poor. Not, however, as poor as the success rate of the economist. You could look it up. When economists predictions are checked against reality, it seems that often times a cageful of monkeys does a better job than a boardroom full of economists. No wonder Economics is known as The Dismal Science.
So why, then, is Economics a science and Astrology not? I am suggesting that it's mostly a public relations gap. And, a crafty choice of symbols on the part of the economists. Where the astrologers use planetary signs, the economists use dollar signs. Vastly more potent symbol in todays world of captialism-on-the-rampage. Additionally, where astrologers make predictions, economists make 'forecasts'. Somehow, wrong forecasts don't generate the same skepticism as wrong predictions.
In an attempt to bring order out of, well, if not chaos, then at least confusion, I am proposing an entire new approach. A fusion as it were of two 'sciences' which, while separately they provide little insight, combined they will perhaps provide us with improved 'forecasting' results. It took some thought, but since astronomics sounds suspiciously like a subset of astronautics, I have decided on Econostrology as the name of my new science. Since it's my invention, it's up to me to name it! I can also be the founder-in-chief of the International Society of Econostrologists (ISE). Using astrological methods, but calling the results forecasts, and inserting a lot of dollar signs, I think this new and hopefully less dismal science has a fair chance of catching on.
A science is, of course, not a science if it doesn't propose a testable hypothesis. Here, then, is the Fundamental Theorem of Econostrology: The People Will Shift From One Side Of The Ship To The Other. When The Cargo Of Debt Becomes Too Great, The Ship Will Sink. The Survivors Will Be More Cautious When Next They Sail. Their Offspring, However, Will Not. I think this hypothesis is readily validated in the historical record. In fact, it's almost a lemma of an earlier theorem: Those who don't remember the past are destined to repeat it. Those who do remember the past are likewise destined to repeat it.
As the founder or Econostrology, I'm planning to name Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman as the founding past president, honoring him for his work establishing that high unemployment is a good thing (though not, perhaps for the unemployed - ed). Since he is now unemployed, I hope to persuade Alan Greenspan as the current past president, honoring him for his work in bamboozling the United States Congress with his Delphic testimony regarding, e.g. 'irrational exuberance'.
I myself plan to be treasurer of ISE. Less work, more profit.

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