Confessions of a Defeatocrat

George W. Bush predicts terrible consequences to follow if United States troops leave Iraq. As if there are not already terrible consequences as a result of their presence. In fact, those things he is predicting are occurring now precisely because of the presence of the occupying troops. "Bush told reporters last week that he invites a change in strategy if the plan isn't working. But he also said the U.S. will not leave until the job is done."The President, as usual, has things precisely backwards; the job won't be done until the troops leave. Things like this: "...The worst bloodshed took place about 50 miles north of Baghdad, around the predominantly Sunni town of Duluiyah and the larger, predominantly Shiite town of Balad. The two communities are separated by the Tigris River..." will continue not occasionally, but every day. Here's the complete Washington Post story:

Washington Post October 15 2006: Iraq Violence Spreads...

Note that in this report, as in very report from Iraq since the invasion three years ago, the killing and destruction is always couched in terms of Shiite versus Sunni. You know, the people who are spending the month of Ramadan fasting, praying, seeking insight into the Will of God as detailed in the holy books of the Old Testament and the Quran. Well, yes, the God of the Old Testament is a pretty bloody God.
What to do?
If we stay: The sectarian violence will continue.
If we go: The sectarian violence will continue.
Since we have been there: Thousands of Iraqis, men, women, children, have been killed. Many by our bombs and bullets.
After we leave:Thousands of Iraqis, men, women, children, will be killed. Not, however, by our bombs and bullets.
When will it end? Not while we remain there.
What will Iraq look like? Not like the vision George W. Bush had when he waved his magic wand. It is most likely to look either like the old Iraq only now ruled over by Saddam Lite, or it will look like three mini-Iraqs, ruled by three "strongmen"; in a more-or-less-continuous state of conflict.
Can the United States influence the outcome? Only in terms of when it will end. The longer the occupying forces stay, the longer it will take.