How To Win In Iraq

A lot of new voices seem to be entering the How To Win In Iraq Sweepstakes (You May Already Be A Winner!) The Pentagon is apparently going to propose increasing the level of effort to train and equip an Iraq army that will be robust enough to protect the Government of Iraq. The Iraq Study Group (sounds a bit like a graduate seminar in the Geography Department, doesn't it?) is perhaps going to suggest actually talking to other countries in the region. Pretty bold stuff.
One thing that all the powers that be in the USA have in common, however, is that they all exist in a society that implicitly believes that governments work. Whether they like the way a government works or not is irrelevant here; none of them seems able to concieve other than extensionally that a government might be incapable of effecting events within its allocated geographic extent. I am here to tell you that, in fact, there are lots of places in the world that have no effective government (see The Hadley Memo). We all know the names - it's just that we don't seem to remember them very well. Let's just say they aren't high on the world tote board. Nepal, Cambodia, Somalia, Haiti, to mention a few. And, now, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Why the Pentagon's Approach Won't Work

The Army of Iraq was sent home three years ago by the American Viceroy. The Army of Iraq that the US Army is training is in fact a lot of young men who have no allegiance to, and no interest in, the nation of Iraq. They are the very insurgents and militias that are shooting at us. The effectiveness of US military training is evident; consider how much better the anti-occupation forces are at killing our soldiers now than they were a few years ago. With more training by the US miltary, eventually the people who want to kill us will be as effective a force as our own army! Sadly, as I said above, an Army General (or a Marine or Air Force General for that matter) is someone who has experienced great success in the United States, is committed to the national government, and has almost a faith-based belief in the effectiveness of training as the solution to every problem. Their experience has shown them that this is correct. The underlying assumption that there exists a government is what's in error with respect to Iraq.

Why the Study Group's Approach Won't Work

Our feckless president won't talk to people he doesn't like. Except to tell them they'd better just do as he tells them to, or they'll be the next on the list. Actually, the neocons who did such a fine job of steering the USA into an attack on Iraq are trying to reprise that effort in Iran. Such delusional thinking is really quite remarkable, if you stop to consider it.

The Maunder Solution

Get out! A phased withdrawal, with the troops leaving according to a schedule. Said schedule being - As fast as the transports can land, refuel, load, and take off!

Will that lead to chaos in Iraq? As opposed to the situation now? Surely. That poor devastated country is in for it, and we - the United States, President George W. Bush, the Iraqi Study Group, The Pentagon, The Democratic Congressional Majority; none of the above has any power to prevent it.

At least, when we are no longer there to be shot at, the Iraqis we trained so dilligently will turn their guns on the foreign forces they are now allied with. A new set of foreigners to exercise their well-deserved xenophobia on. A new scapegoat, if you will.

I should probably mention, at the end, that I wanted to rush-to-post in order to predate the Iraq Study Group's no doubt very eloquent report, due out on Wednesday.