Not A Surprise

Not surprising that we are seeing (ok, reading about) an increase in the bombings shootings and general mayhem in Iraq. It's been a nice exercise in global realpolitik to (ahem) "recruit" several brigades of disaffected Sunni combatants. At a cost of a few hundred US$/warrior/month, the United States occupying forces in essence bribed the insurgents to turn around and shoot at their unregenerate (unbribed) friends.

The "Sons Of Iraq"...

The visible signs of conflict subsided. This is an unsurprising result. It was a pretty tough slog for the insurgents, trying to mount a resistance with little weaponry and little training. As part of General Petraeus "Surge", however, in addition to getting paid to fight, they're being armed and trained by US trainers. A pretty good way to take a break from the dangers of fighting a guerilla campaign against a massive occupying force. The currently ruling Shi'ite government was undertandably nervous, of course. They couldn't say too much about the situation, but it was clearly going to make it tougher to mount a Payback Operation against their traditional foes - now better armed and better prepared. Now that the occupying forces are on their way out, the maneuvering for advantage in the upcoming Civil War is beginning to show. The U.S. military recently stopped paying the Sons of Iraq, and the former insurgents now need to become former turncoats and return to being insurgents if they're to survive the New Iraqi Civil War. They're likely going to end up between a vengeful Iraqi (Shi'ite that is) regular army and an even more vengeful rebel (Sunni that is) irregular army. It appears that's what the Unregenerate Insurgent Sunnis are doing now: Another suicide bombing, letting the turncoat Sons Of Iraq know it's dangerous for them to try to collect their pay from the occupiers.
The Sons Of Iraq had better have a pretty good story to tell: something about how they always intended to take the money and the guns, and then return to the welcoming arms of their fellow Resistance Fighters, better able to kill the enemy (which by now is pretty much everybody in the world).